Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Keys to Success: NL West

In part two of my Keys to Success series, I want to take a look at the highly competitive National League West. Out of the five teams with the best record in the National League, three of them play in the West division and all three of those teams could do serious damage in the playoffs. The three contenders I will be talking about are the Los Angeles Dodgers, Colorado Rockies, and San Francisco Giants. Let's play ball!


Los Angeles Dodgers: Although they've struggled over the past couple weeks, there hasn't been a more consistent team in baseball this season. The Yankees recently overtook the Dodgers for the best record in the league, but the Dodgers have been strong all season long and the Yankees stumbled out of the gates. What Joe Torre has done with this team is remarkable considering all the distractions that have followed his club this season. If L.A. can continue their consistent play, they should be able to head towards the playoffs with home field advantage and a good chance at reaching the World Series. In order to do this, there are a number of different players that could be huge factors in this team's success, but I'll choose a couple not named Ramirez. While Manny Ramirez certainly has the ability to put a team on his back and carry them (which he showed last season), the Dodgers are a deeper team this season and I think Manny will have plenty of help.

Many people were hoping for a breakout season from Matt Kemp, and he has not failed to deliver. Kemp has provided a huge lift for the bottom part of the lineup for the Dodgers, he's been great in center field, and he's developed a knack for coming up with clutch hits. He's quickly becoming one of the best young outfielders in the game, and he can help keep some of the pressure off Manny as the team heads down the stretch. In my opinion, the other key for the Dodgers will be the continued consistency of their starting pitching. Chad Billingsley was dominant during the first half of the season, but he has struggled a bit and he now appears to be dealing with an injury. Randy Wolf hasn't been overwhelming, but he's been very consistent and he almost always gives his team a chance to win. And Clayton Kershaw, with his ERA of 2.73, has just been filthy good. The bullpen has a great combination to end games with George Sherrill and Jonathan Broxton, so the starting pitching will need to do their part. If Billingsley, Wolf, and Kershaw can stay healthy for a playoff run and stay poised during the big games, the Dodgers could be playing well into October.

Colorado Rockies: The Rockies come across to me as the National League version of the Texas Rangers. They are entertaining to watch because they score lots of runs, play in a launching pad, and their pitching can be somewhat unpredictable. Since Jim Tracy has taken
over the team, they've really found new life and turned their season around. Colorado has had some young players (Dexter Fowler & Clint Barmes) step up, some guys play up to their potential (Troy Tulowitzki & Huston Street), and one veteran who seems to have found the fountain of youth (Todd Helton). Most people probably felt like the Rockies would step back a bit offensively this year after losing Matt Holliday to free agency, but they're right back up at the top of National League in most offensive categories yet again. Jim Tracy deserves serious consideration for Manager of the Year and the Rockies are playing in such a way that they deserve serious consideration as a playoff team.

It seems odd to be able to say this about such a young ball club, but Colorado is fortunate they have experience on their side. Many of the players on this team were a part of that amazing run a few years ago where the Rockies made it all the way to the World Series before falling to the Red Sox. So these guys have been here before, and they know what it takes to get into the post-season. And if I'm picking two guys that I think could be the difference in Colorado, I'm going to take Troy Tulowitzki and Ubaldo Jimenez. Since the managerial change, Tulowitzki has really elevated his game and played the way he's capable of playing. When the Rockies made their run three years ago, Tulo was a huge spark plug and nearly won the Rookie of the Year award. This year, Tulowitzki is again sparking his team towards another playoff run and he provides the always deadly combination of power and speed. He has a legitimate chance at finishing the year with 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases. As for Ubaldo Jimenez, he's really started to round in to form since the All-Star break. He's now had six quality starts in a row, and he's showing he has the ability to pitch in Coors Field, which is no easy task. If he can continue to play the way he has since the All-Star break, he and Jason Marquis give the Rockies a very nice 1-2 punch in their starting rotation, which can be very potent in a short series in the playoffs.

San Francisco Giants: For a group that could sneak into the playoffs, I don't think there's a team I would NOT want to play in a series more than the Giants. When you have the opportunity to bring out Tim Lincecum for two or three games in a series, you put yourself in a situation where you only need one or two other pitchers to step up, and the Giants have more than just Tiny Tim. I really like what the Giants did at the trade deadline in acquiring Freddy Sanchez because I think he can provide a boost to their suspect lineup. Sanchez is a guy who doesn't try to do too much at the plate and he's a solid infielder. And Ryan Garko is another guy who could provide some much needed offensive protection for the Kung Fu Panda, Pablo Sandoval.

While it may come down to whether or not the Giants can generate enough offense for their outstanding pitching, I believe there are two other factors that will determine whether or not San Francisco can get to October. First, they have to learn how to win games on the road. A 23-32 road record isn't going to get it done when you're trying to nail down a playoff spot so they're going to have to figure out what it takes to win away from San Francisco. Fortunately, they are about to start an 11 game road trip, which ends with a HUGE four game series in Colorado. If the Giants are able to win all three series on their upcoming trip, they could be well on their way towards returning to the postseason. Along with winning on the road, I believe the Giants will need Matt Cain to continue to pitch at a high level. Surprisingly, Cain has the same number of wins and a nearly identical ERA as Tim Lincecum, who appears to be heading towards his 2nd consecutive Cy Young. Cain was roughed up in his last start against the Reds and he has a propensity for giving up the long ball, so we'll see if he can recover from his start and get back on track or if he'll start to fade as the season winds down. If Cain is able to continue to dominate in the same way he has so far this season, the Giants have arguably the best 1-2 tandem of starters in baseball.

Prediction: Even though they're struggling right now, I like the Dodgers to win the division. I think the Rockies will hold everyone off in the Wild Card race, including Tim Lincecum and the Giants.

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