In Spring Training, most people thought the National League East would be a two team race between the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets. The Phillies haven't disappointed with a 69-49 record, but the Mets have had one of the most injury proned seasons I've ever seen and they're now too far back in the standings to contend for a playoff birth. So while the Mets have struggled, the Florida Marlins and Atlanta Braves have taken advantage of the opportunity and both teams have themselves right in the thick of the Wild Card race. As we head down the stretch, these three teams will play each other a number of times and how they perform against each other will be the deciding factor in who continues to the playoffs and who begins preparing for next season.
Philadelphia Phillies: Before the trade deadline, the Phillies were starting to play like the best team in the National League. Then, they went and got one of the best pitchers in baseball, Cliff Lee, and all he's done since joining the team is win four straight games and have a 0.82 ERA. The man has only given up three earned runs in 33 innings! Combine Lee with the continued dominance of J.A. Happ and Joe Blanton, and the Phillies have three starters who are carrying the rotation, and none of them were significant pieces of last year's championship team. Let's not
forget the fact that they still have Cole Hamels (a World Series MVP), they've added Pedro Martinez to the starting rotation, and they have the experience of Jamie Moyer. With all the talent in their starting rotation, I don't think it would surprise anyone if the Phillies made it back to the World Series again this season.
Oh yeah, the Phillies have a pretty good offense too. I just named all the reasons why pitching could win them a championship, and they also feature an offense that leads the National League in runs, home runs, and slugging percentage. Arguably, this is a team with the best 1-6 lineup in baseball. As a pitcher, when you look at the lineup and see Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard, Werth, and Ibanez, you have to wonder how you're going to get three outs and get out of an inning. It's a team with a great combination of power and speed, and it doesn't hurt that they play in such an offense-friendly ballpark. This is a group of guys who know how to win big games and they have the experience of knowing what it takes to win a championship.
Now that I've made the Phillies out to be invincible, what could be their downfall? Last year's championship team had an outstanding bullpen, which was probably the best in the league. This season, the bullpen has been anything but stable and Charlie Manuel needs to get this straightened out before the playoffs begin. In 2008, Brad Lidge was 41 for 41 in converting save opportunities and Ryan Madson, J.C. Romero, and Chad Durbin were lights out as the middle relievers. So far in 2009, Lidge leads the league in blown saves (8) and he has a 7.21 ERA. Not good! Madson has remained effective, but Romero and Durbin have had injury problems and don't appear to be as sharp. The starting pitching appears strong enough to be able to go deep into games, so it should help keep the bullpen rested and fresh during the playoffs. If the Phillies are going to repeat, they'll need these guys to pull everything together and close out games the way they did last season.
Florida Marlins: In my opinion, the Marlins might be one of the most intriguing teams in the National League. You look at their roster and statistics and wonder how they can be competing for a Wild Card spot, but they're only four games behind Colorado. It's a team that doesn't have much star-power (outside of Hanley Ramirez) but they have guys who can swing the bat and score a lot of runs. Ironically, while the Marlins' offense has been unexpectedly good, the pitching has been rather disappointing. If they're going to catch the Rockies and Giants in the Wild Card standings, I think it will all come down to pitching for the Fish.
In Spring Training, Bobby Cox talked about how he thought the Marlins had the best young pitching staff in the National League. Really? Maybe he's talking about a different pitching staff. Josh Johnson has been the one brightspot for the pitching staff this season. He has a 2.99 ERA, a 12-3 record, and he's produced 20 quality starts in the 25 games he's pitched in this season. Outside of Johnson, no other starter has an ERA below 4.00 and only two other pitchers have accumulated over 100 innings. I don't think anyone doubts the fact that Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez are tremendously talented pitchers, but it doesn't matter if they can't translate those skills into results. And if we call the starting pitching bad, I'm not sure what kind of word to use for the bullpen. The Matt Lindstrom experiment as the closer didn't work, and the Leo Nunez project hasn't been much better. It must be a tough decision for a manager when he looks at his bullpen in the 9th inning and he asks himself, "Do I bring in the guy who's already blown four saves? Or the other guy who has an ERA of 6.00?"
The series coming up this weekend is HUGE for Florida. They have a three game series in Atlanta and they're going against three good starting pitchers for the Braves. If Florida can come away with a series win and continue to win the games they're supposed to down the stretch, they could find themselves in the playoffs.
Atlanta Braves: For the first time in the past couple years, Braves fans have something to really be excited about. Atlanta got a big win last night against the Mets as Kenshin Kawakami outpitched Johan Santana and the Braves won the three game series in New York. They still have a substantial amount of ground to make up in the Wild-Card, but it was a big momentum game for a team who has had difficulty winning close games on the road. Now, they have an opportunity to build on that momentum as they head home for a three game series against the Marlins, and they have three of their best starting pitchers taking the mound.
In order for Atlanta to win the Wild Card spot, I think they need some guys to step up on the offensive end. The starting pitching is solid with Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Javier Vazquez, and Tommy Hanson and the bullpen appears to be good with Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano, so the Braves just need to consistenly score some runs. Chipper Jones and Brian McCann have had pretty good years, but still not up to the standards they set for themselves. If both guys can stay healthy long enough to get into a good rhythm at the plate, they'll both probably get their averages up over .300 and have plenty of opportunities to pick up RBI's. Along with Jones and McCann, I think the other guys that need to produce are Adam LaRoche and Ryan Church. I'll admit I was extremely cynical of the decision to bring LaRoche back to Atlanta, but he's been on fire since joining the club, hitting .404 with six home runs and 12 RBI's in 17 games. Church is a guy who doesn't have any eye-popping stats, but the Braves could use a player who can help them in the bottom of the lineup and provide solid defense. If LaRoche can stay hot, and Ryan Church can pick up the slack in the outfield while Nate McLouth is on the DL, the Braves could finally make a return to the playoffs.
Prediction: As I said in my NL Central blog, I think the National League will come down to the Phillies and Cardinals. It's too early to predict what a series between those teams would look like, but the Phillies have a great shot at repeating. I think the Marlins are going to struggle with youth and inexperience down the stretch and the Braves will continue to play well. I don't think Atlanta will do enough to catch the Rockies and Giants in the Wild Card, but there will be reason for optimism heading into next season at Turner Field
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