If playoff teams were decided by which teams had the best records in their league, no one from the American League Central would make it! Actually, the first place team in the central (Detroit) isn't even one of the top six teams in the American league! Frankly, it's a collection of mediocre teams who spend the season hovering around .500 and beating each other up. But alas, the central will have a division champion who will qualify for the playoffs, and it should be a very competitive race between the Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox, and Minnesota Twins. Here's who I think the difference makers will be:
Detroit Tigers: I don't know whether to say the Tigers have had a solid year and they have a good chance to win the division, or they've underachieved again and they're better than what the record indicates. As good as they've been at home in Comerica Park (36-18), the Tigers are
abysmal on the road (23-36). And as good as Edwin Jackson and Justin Verlander have been at the top of the rotation, Armando Galarraga and Rick Porcello have a combined ERA of almost 5.oo! So while there are a number of things that need to happen for the Tigers to make the playoffs, I'll pick two and go from there.
The first one I already mentioned, and his name is Edwin Jackson. When he came over from the Rays in the offseason, it seemed like a nice pick up for Detroit but no one really thought too much of it. So far, Jackson has been outstanding with an ERA of 2.79 and 120 strikeouts in 152 innings and he's given his team 17 quality starts out of the 23 games he's started. He won't get much consideration for the Cy Young award because he only has eight wins, but he really should be in the conversation. He will need to continue to dominate in order for the Tigers to keep their slim division lead. As for my second key - paging Magglio Ordonez! In his previous three seasons, Mags' home run and RBI totals were (2006: 24,104)(2007: 28,139)(2008: 21,103), and this season he currently has 6 home runs and 36 RBI's. Six home runs! Fortunately for Detroit, Curtis Granderson and Brandon Inge have really stepped up in the power department, but Ordonez needs to deliver. He's one of the leaders on this team and they have always depended on him as a great hitter and run producer. So Magglio, it's time to lead your team and earn the $19 million you're getting paid this season.
Chicago White Sox: Ozzie Guillen always keeps things interesting on the south side doesn't he? While part of me thinks the White Sox are destined to win the World Series because they have the support of Barack Obama (he wanted the Steelers and Tar Heels to win and look what happened!), Chicago will need to snap themselves out of the funk they've been in for the past couple weeks. However, they also made some BIG acquisitions in the past few weeks that could fuel them towards repeating as division champions and making the playoffs again.
In my opinion, the keys for the White Sox will be the performance of the recent additions to the club, Jake Peavy and Alex Rios. Although he's returning from injury, Peavy has the ability to be the best pitcher in the game and he could feed off the adrenaline of playing for a contender. By playing in a division that doesn't feature a lot of high powered offense, Peavy could be the difference maker for the White Sox if he is able to shut down the opposition and go deep into games. And while Alex Rios has struggled this season, he is a guy who can provide more power to the lineup and the ability to hit for average and steal bases. The White Sox seem to have no shortage of power hitters, so it'd be great of Rios could join with Gordan Beckham (who could be the AL Rookie of the Year) and Scott Podsednik at the top of the lineup and really set the tone by getting on base and putting pressure on opposing pitchers. When you combine Rios' hitting potential with Peavy's pitching potential, the White Sox really could get hot down the stretch and be a team no one wants to face.
Minnesota Twins: Things aren't looking good for the Twinkies. They're five games back in the Central, ten games back in the Wild Card, and they've lost 7 of their last 10. It's a testament to the Twins organization that they always seem to be in the hunt in the central division, but the pitching hasn't been as strong this season as it has been in years past. Big things were expected of Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano and they haven't gotten the job done. Even Kevin Slowey's 10-3 record is a bit misleading, with an ERA of 4.86 and BAA of .309. Slowey should probably be thanking Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau for providing so much run support. Mauer continues to emerge as one of the young superstars of the game and Morneau should be considered one of the best players no one talks about.
I think the key for the Twins is a couple guys who have been dreadful this season, Nick Punto and Joe Crede. Punto was great at second base for the Twins last season with a .284 average. This year, he's platooned with Alexi Casilla and he can barely keep his batting average over .200. It says something when you're batting .200 and you're still outplaying your competition (Casilla is batting .172). As for Joe Crede, maybe we should just look at his one great year with the White Sox as a one-hit wonder. While Crede does have 15 home runs, he's only batting .237 and he's not exactly setting the world on fire with his defense. Don't forget that Crede is rather injury proned and he could go down at any point, forcing the Twins to deal with another injury and possible call-up. Basically, if the Twins are going to do anything, these guys need to contribute. There's some real talent in the heart of order, but they have gotten NO production from the bottom of the order. Throw in Delmon Young (who's plays so far below expectations that everyone just knows he'll be bad) and you've got a problem.
Prediction: I think the White Sox are going to come back and overtake the Tigers for the division. The Twins are heading in the wrong direction and I don't think they'll be turning it around. And no one from this division is making the Wild Card - I guarantee it!
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