If I had written this blog a month ago, I probably would have had to do a lot more research. At one point, the National League Central looked like it could end up being a four team battle that would go down to the last week of the season. As we went into the All-Star Break, the St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, and Milwaukee Brewers all looked like they could compete for the division crown and make the playoffs. But over the past few weeks, the Cardinals have started to separate themselves from the rest of the pack, the Cubs are hanging in the Wild Card race, and the Astros and Brewers have really been fading. So let's take a look at the Cardinals and the Cubs and figure out what both teams need in order to have postseason success.
St. Louis Cardinals: What a year for the Cards! In the preseason, everyone seemed to hand the Central division to the Cubs on a silver platter and we figured the Cardinals would have another solid year but finish behind Chicago. Instead, the Cardinals have been consistently good all season behind the excellence of Albert Pujols and some great pitching. I would say I'm pretty neutral towards most teams in baseball and I pull for certain players more than teams, but it's hard not to admire the Cardinals organization. Every year, they seem to be fundamentally sound and competitive, and they do it with professionalism and class. St. Louis fans seem to be among the most passionate and knowledgeable fans of any sport and they have great pride in their team, as they should. They have made some big acquisitions in the past few weeks, and getting Matt Holliday from the A's appears to be one of the best trade deadline moves we've seen in recent years. Doesn't Holliday just seem like a good fit in St. Louis? Another guy who plays hard and carries himself the right way, on and off the field.
So what are the keys for the Cardinals to make a deep run into the postseason? Honestly, they just need to keep playing the way they have been playing over the past couple weeks. The top three guys in their starting rotation really look great right now and their bullpen has turned out to be one of the best in the National League. If Chris Carpenter can stay healthy into the playoffs and Joel Pineiro can continue his great season, the Cardinals have a 3-man pitching rotation that is very intimidating to other teams. Pineiro seems to produce a quality start every time he goes out, Adam Wainwright might be the best pitcher in the game no one talks about, and Carpenter is a former Cy Young winner who has unhittable stuff when he can stay healthy. And if John Smoltz can turn his season around and regain some of his old form by playoff time, it's a huge bonus. Combine those starters with Ryan Franklin, a guy who's emerged out of nowhere to lead the league in saves with a 1.13 ERA, and the Cardinals make for an extremely difficult series.
On the offensive side of the ball, I think it will be about the guys not named Holliday or Pujols. Albert Pujols is a virtual lock for another National League MVP award and Matt Holliday has been arguably the best hitter in the game since coming to St. Louis, so the Cardinals are in pretty good shape with those two guys carrying the offense. But, if they are going to win a championship, everyone will need to step up and contribute. While Holliday and Pujols will get most of the attention, I think guys like Mark DeRosa (another great midseason pickup), Colby Rasmus, and Skip Schumaker will have to come up with some clutch plays down the stretch. Ryan Ludwick, Chris Duncan, and Rick Ankiel will have to provide solid protection for Pujols and Holliday in the lineup or come in and get a big pinch hit in a key moment. When you look at this team, they appear to have a lot of really good pieces in place and they're hitting their stride at the right point of the season. And as we've learned so many times in the playoffs, it's not about being the best team as much as it's about being the hottest team.
Chicago Cubs: I wonder if Cubs fans consider this season a disappointment? Part of me thinks they have to be disappointed at how the team has played this year, but another part of me thinks Cubs fans go into every season thinking their team will let them down again and this year is no different. But hope should not be lost in the windy city! The odds don't look good, but this could be one of those years where the Cubs pull everything together at the end of the year and sneak into the playoffs and really do some damage. However, the Cubs seem to be going in the wrong direction, with a 3-7 record in their last 10 games and they're now five games behind the Wild Card leader, Colorado.
For a team with so much talent, there are a number of areas you could look at where the guys from the north side need to improve. The starting pitching has been pretty good (but struggled with injuries), the bullpen appears to be deteriorating in a hurry, the hitting has been brutal (riddled with injuries), and the away record is pathetic. So while all these areas are important for success, I think the two biggest factors for Chicago will be their offense and their bullpen. There are a few guys who really produced last season and haven't been able to replicate that success again this season. Aramis Ramirez and Geovany Soto have dealt with injuries most of the year, and they've really struggled with getting into a consistent rhythm at the plate. Milton Bradley has been a mediocre offseason acquisition who hasn't really produced much and seems to be ejected every couple weeks after he blows up at an umpire. And while he's talked most of the year about nagging injuries he's played through, Alfonso Soriano has been quite streaky, with many prolonged droughts. Soriano does have 19 home runs and 25 doubles, but he is also sporting a .243 batting average and only eight stolen bases. I think Soriano sets the tone for the Cubs offense and when he is hitting the ball well, it energizes the rest of the lineup and really picks the team up. He'll need to get hot down the stretch if the Cubs are going to battle their way back into the playoffs.
Next, we have the issue of the bullpen. When you're heading into the last couple months of the season, you don't want to be worrying about finding a new closer. After running up an 11.25 ERA and blowing 3 saves in the month of August, Kevin Gregg has been removed from the closer's role and Lou Piniella is now scrambling to find a replacement. The first choice appears to be Carlos Marmol, who has given up 52 walks in only 56 innings! Marmol already has four saves this season, but he also matches that number with four blown saves. If I'm a Cubs fans and I see those stats, I'm thinking "uh-oh." The other problem with making Marmol the 9th inning guy is the issue of finding a new set-up man. I think the plan will be to have Angel Guzman serve as the set up man in the 8th and then turn the game over to Marmol in the 9th. If that situation doesn't work, the Cubs may switch the order and give Guzman a chance to close games, but they'll probably be out of any postseason discussions if things get that bad.
Prediction: The Cubs are done! They're headed in the wrong direction at the wrong time of the year and they just can't stay healthy. Maybe they need an offseason where they aren't reading their press clippings and listening to everyone tell them how good they are. As you could probably tell, I really like the Cardinals and their chances this season. They don't appear to have many weaknesses and they're playing their best baseball of the year. They'll win the Central division going away and I like them to advance in the playoffs. Depending on how the final standings end up, I think the Cardinals and Phillies are who it will come down to as the National League Champion.
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