I will admit that I am not a diehard Orlando Magic fan and I'm probably not as disappointed in last night's loss as much as many Orlando fans are. Yet, since they drafted J.J. Redick and I've followed Dwight Howard more and more, I have become a bigger Magic fan. Usually, I will watch part of their games when they're on television and I'll read the postgame recaps online, but I've never been to a game in person, and I've had plenty of opportunities. Still, if there's a team that I'm pulling for most to win an NBA Championship, it'd be Orlando.
However, after following this team throughout the season and especially the playoffs, I'm thinking that I won't be able to pull for them in a championship series because I don't think they'll make it that far. If there has been a more inconsistent team in the playoffs this year, I don't think I've seen them. And while Orlando is unbelievably streaky and inconsistent during games, it's remarkable how consistent they are in giving up big leads.
Last night, when they had a 10 point lead with about 5 minutes to go, I figured they were in good shape to pull out the victory. I am a believer in the statistical probability aspect of the game where if a team has a lead that is equal to the amount of minutes left in the game, their probability of winning is around 80%. Therefore, even if the Magic had only been up five points with five minutes to go, I still would have thought they'd have a great chance at winning the game. The reasoning behind this probability is that the lead is too great and there is not enough time left for the trailing team to get enough defensive stops and have enough offensive opportunities to win the game. Unfortunately, Stan Van Gundy and Hedo Turkoglu cause me to constantly question my belief in those statistical probabilities because they always seem to lose the lead at an unbelievable rate.
I really don't know what the thinking was behind the Orlando offense in the last five minutes of that game, not that it really matters whether or not I know or understand. If the idea was to run the clock out, then why where they hoisting 3's with more than ten seconds on the shot clock? If the idea was to attack, why weren't they moving the ball around and creating open perimeter looks by giving the ball to Dwight Howard inside? Either way, turnovers and taking quick contested shots is the easiest way to lose momentum and a comfortable lead.
Last night was an example of a team that has plenty of talent, but they don't have an experienced leader who has been in those situations before. Rashard Lewis and Dwight Howard are great, but neither of them have been very far in the playoffs. Hedo Turkoglu thinks he's great, and he's been there with the Kings - but Hedo has the wonderful European characteristic of losing control on a drive and then blaming the officials for his own mistakes. And Stan Van Gundy...bless his heart. I like Van Gundy and I want him to succeed, but he seems the most panicked when his team struggles at the end of games. It's ironic that Shaq's comments about him earlier in the year related to his team choking at the end of games when it really matters and now that might spell the end of the season for Orlando.
I'll continue to hold out hope because this series is not over. The two teams return to Orlando for game six and the Magic have been strong at home this season. I thought last night's game was a must win for Orlando because I don't see them returning to Boston and winning game seven, but if these guys can get on a consistent hot streak, they're definitely good enough to win two in a row against the Celtics.
-BD
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